PRESIDENT GAINS – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  Look, it's midsummer, and the hills are alive with the sound of padded newscasts and the papers are filled with fillers – stories and columns of little significance put there to fill space because many of the newsmakers are on vacation or taking some time off. 

So, polls are always interesting, even if they're often inaccurate, but the Rasmussen poll is especially interesting because it has a history of accuracy, and it's the only daily tracker left.  And we may, I stress may, be seeing a little bounceback in the president's popularity in Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 35% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove.

COMMENT:  This probably reflects public reaction to last week's good economic news.  By contrast, there are a number of "analytical" pieces out, some from conservative sources, saying that it looks like a Democratic blue wave is building for the November elections.

Of course, that can happen.  It often happens in the first midterm following a new president's inauguration.  The president loses votes.  Not always, but most of the time.

Some analysts are saying that dislike of President Trump may drive the Republicans down, even though the economy is roaring.  And yes, it is true, some of the state polls are becoming discouraging.  But two months ago they were pretty good for us, and that can happen again.  The serious campaigning hasn't begun.  In a way, it may be good for the Republicans to have some fear injected into them, so they'll start hustling and get out the vote.

And remember, many of the polling organizations were seriously off in 2016, and haven't changed their methods.  Just fight hard and drive someone to the polls.

July 31,  2018